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OWNERSHIP, PRIVATIZATION AND INVESTMENT FADS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM RUSSIA AND THE CASPIAN REGION

机译:所有制,私有化和投资领域:来自俄罗斯和卡皮地区的理论和证据

摘要

This dissertation contains three essays that combine applied models, institutional analysis and empirical work in order to understand developments in the Russian and Caspian energy sector following the breakup of the former Soviet Union. In the first essay entitled "Partial Privatization: Evidence from the Russian Oil Sector" (joint with Daniel Berkowitz), we document that Russia's oil sector privatization has been partial because the federal government has maintained ownership rights in several vertically integrated companies and has established a near monopoly position in the allocation of scarce export transport capacity. We develop the proposition that in these circumstances the federal government would tend to give companies in which it has ownership positions preferential access to world export markets. We develop a classification system of company ownership that distinguishes between state-influence and state-independent companies. Using censored-regression techniques, we find compelling evidence that the state-influence companies had privileged access to export transport by 2003, and argue that this suggests that there are substantial efficiency losses in the Russian oil sector. The second essay, "Caspian Oil Boom: Informational Herding among the Oil Companies", analyzes the potential causes of the Caspian oil rush of 1997-1998. It provides an institutional description of foreign investment in the Caspian region in 1997-1998, and looks at different possible explanations for the investment boom. We argue that informational herding among oil companies could have contributed to the high investment activity in the region in the late 1990s, and qualitatively check for the power of the herding against the alternative explanations.In the third essay, "Quality of Information, Information Externalities and Sequential Decisions of Oil Companies," we develop a theoretical model that works out the logic and mechanics of the informational herding explanation for the Caspian oil boom. We show that under certain conditions a second company to enter will invest in the development of a new oil field even if it received a bad informative signal about the profitability of the project. We also show that when companies receive noisy public and private information, the second company may be more likely to invest after receiving a bad signal.
机译:本论文包含三篇论文,结合了应用模型,制度分析和实证研究,以了解前苏联解体后俄罗斯和里海能源部门的发展。在第一篇题为“部分私有化:来自俄罗斯石油部门的证据”(与Daniel Berkowitz合着)中,我们证明了俄罗斯石油部门的私有化是部分的,因为联邦政府在几家垂直整合的公司中拥有所有权,并建立了一个在分配稀缺的出口运输能力方面几乎处于垄断地位。我们提出这样的主张,在这种情况下,联邦政府将倾向于给予拥有所有权的公司优先进入世界出口市场的机会。我们开发了公司所有权的分类系统,该系统可以区分国家影响力公司和国家独立公司。使用审查回归技术,我们发现有力的证据表明,到2003年,具有国家影响力的公司已享有出口运输的特权,并认为这表明俄罗斯石油部门存在大量效率损失。第二篇文章“里海石油繁荣:石油公司之间的信息羊群效应”分析了1997-1998年里海石油热潮的潜在原因。它提供了1997-1998年里海地区外国投资的制度描述,并探讨了对投资繁荣的不同解释。我们认为,石油公司之间的信息羊群活动可能会导致1990年代后期该地区的高投资活动,并根据替代解释性地定性地检验羊群的力量。在第三篇文章中,“信息质量,信息外部性和石油公司的顺序决策”,我们开发了一种理论模型,该模型可以为里海石油繁荣时期的信息羊群解释建立逻辑和机制。我们表明,在一定条件下,即使第二家公司收到有关该项目获利能力的不良信息,也将投资开发新油田。我们还表明,当公司收到嘈杂的公共和私人信息时,第二家公司在收到不良信号后可能更有可能进行投资。

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