Mexico’s path towards the Sustainable Development Goaludfor health: an assessment of the feasibility of reducingudpremature mortality by 40 by 2030

摘要

Background The United Nations Sustainable Development Goal for health (SDG3) poses complex challenges forudsignatory countries that will require clear roadmaps to set priorities over the next 15 years. Building upon the work ofudthe Commission on Investing in Health and published estimates of feasible global mortality SDG3 targets, weudanalysed Mexico’s mortality to assess the feasibility of reducing premature (0–69 years) mortality and propose a pathudto meet SDG3.udMethods We developed a baseline scenario applying 2010 age-specifi c and cause-specifi c mortality rates from theudMexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) to the 2030 UN Population Division (UNPD)udpopulation projections. In a second scenario, INEGI age-specifi c and cause-specifi c trends in death rates from 2000 toud2014 were projected to 2030 and adjusted to match the UNPD 2030 mortality projections. A third scenario assumed aud40% reduction in premature deaths across all ages and causes. By comparing these scenarios we quantifi ed shortfallsudin mortality reductions by age group and cause, and forecasted life expectancy pathways for Mexico to converge toudbetter performing countries.udFindings UNPD-projected death rates yield a 25·9% reduction of premature mortality for Mexico. Acceleratedudreductions in adult mortality are necessary to reach a 40% reduction by 2030. Mortality declines aggregated across alludage groups mask uneven gains across health disorders. Injuries, particularly road traffi c accidents and homicides, areudthe main health challenge for young adults (aged 20–49 years) whereas unabated diabetes mortality is the single mostudimportant health concern for older adults (aged 50–69 years).udInterpretation Urgent action is now required to control non-communicable diseases and reduce fatal injuries inudMexico, making a 40% reduction in premature mortality by 2030 feasible and putting Mexico back on a track ofudsubstantial life expectancy convergence with better performing countries. Our study provides a roadmap for settingudnational health priorities. Further analysis of the equity implications of following the suggested pathway remains audsubject of future research.