Littoralisation de la façade nord-méditerranéenne : analyse spatiale et prospective dans le contexte du changement climatique

摘要

The growing anthropic pressures and the upcoming climatic changes raise many questions about the future of the coasts of the Latin Arc. This thesis develops prospective methods and knowledge in order to support the required anticipation for prevention and adaptation, towards a sustainable territorial development. Two areas of research are explored: a prospective of littoralisation spatial dynamics in the Latin Arc and an assessment of the adaptability of coastal territories to climate change. These two points belong to the same methodological approach, which assesses the evolution potential of coastal territories. Because we question the role of spatial configurations in the evolution of territories, we thus position into the framework of spatial prospective. This field explores the future of spatial systems on the basis of their past and actual functioning and of spatial change properties. Quantitative methods of spatial analysis (ESDA, cellular automata modeling and system dynamics) are combined with qualitative methods (sequence analysis, causal systems analysis). They enable to integrate spatio-temporal dynamics and complexity of the evolution of territories. The results of the population trajectories analysis of the Latin Arc provide anoverall and spatially differentiated vision of littoralisation and of its possible evolutions. The assessment of territories adaptability has been set up by a simulation approach on theoretical spaces on the one hand, and by a diagnosis applied to the rise of sea level in Camargue on the other hand. They show the interest of taking into account spatial configurations to identify differentiated adaptation potentialities and adaptation measures consistent with territories.