A systematic method of project selection based on risk and return criteria and according to the mean-semi-deviation behavioral hypothesis

摘要

The uncertain problem of Industrial project selection is the topic of discussion in this article. As the unrealistic assumption of certainty is relaxed in this problem, the decision maker is faced with a two-criterion decisionudmodel in which justifying between Risk and Return are the main concerns. The concept of Risk has been revised and the “Semi-Deviation” measure has been proposed to represent the risk of a project. Based on the new Mean-Semi-deviation Behavior, and according to Utility and Modern Portfolio theories, a more efficient method of project evaluation will be presented.