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Digital trace data in the study of public opinion : an indicator of attention toward politics rather than political support

机译：舆论研究中的数字跟踪数据：关注政治而不是政治支持的指标

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In this article, we examine the relationship between metrics documenting politics-related Twitter activity with election results and trends in opinion polls. Various studies have proposed the possibility of inferring public opinion based on digital trace data collected on Twitter and even the possibility to predict election results based on aggregates of mentions of political actors. Yet, a systematic attempt at a validation of Twitter as an indicator for political support is lacking. In this article, building on social science methodology, we test the validity of the relationship between various Twitter-based metrics of public attention toward politics with election results and opinion polls. All indicators tested in this article suggest caution in the attempt to infer public opinion or predict election results based on Twitter messages. In all tested metrics, indicators based on Twitter mentions of political parties differed strongly from parties’ results in elections or opinion polls. This leads us to question the power of Twitter to infer levels of political support of political actors. Instead, Twitter appears to promise insights into temporal dynamics of public attention toward politics.

机译：在本文中，我们检查了记录与政治相关的Twitter活动与选举结果和民意测验趋势之间的关系。各种研究都提出了根据推特上收集的数字跟踪数据来推断民意的可能性，甚至可能根据政治人物的提及总量来预测选举结果。但是，缺乏系统地尝试验证Twitter作为政治支持的指标。在本文中，我们基于社会科学方法论，通过选举结果和民意测验测试了各种基于Twitter的公众对政治的关注度指标之间关系的有效性。本文测试的所有指标都建议谨慎，以试图根据Twitter消息推断民意或预测选举结果。在所有经过测试的指标中，基于Twitter提及政党的指标与政党在选举或民意测验中的结果差异很大。这使我们质疑Twitter推论政治角色的政治支持水平的能力。取而代之的是，Twitter似乎承诺对公众关注政治的时间动态提供见解。

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Jungherr, Andreas; Schoen, Harald; Posegga, Oliver; Jürgens, Pascal;
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年度 2017
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入库时间 2022-08-20 20:31:58

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1. Digital Trace Data in the Study of Public Opinion: An Indicator of Attention Toward Politics Rather Than Political Support [J] . Jungherr Andreas, Schoen Harald, Posegga Oliver, Social science computer review . 2017,第3期

机译：舆论研究中的数字跟踪数据：关注政治而不是政治支持的指标
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Digital trace data in the study of public opinion : an indicator of attention toward politics rather than political support

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