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Missed Opportunities: Optimal Investment Timing when Information is Costly

机译:错失的机会:信息昂贵时的最佳投资时机

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摘要

Real options analysis typically assumes that projects are continuously evaluated and launched at precisely the time determined to be optimal. However real world projects cannot be managed in this way because of the costs of formally evaluating an investment opportunity. This paper analyzes how projects should be managed in such a world. Information about a project comes in two flavors: project-specific information which can only be observed if a fixed evaluation cost is incurred; and generic information which can be observed without cost. If sufficiently good generic information is observed during the period immediately after a project evaluation the firm will invest without any further evaluation. Beyond this period the firm will always reevaluate the project before investment. The availability of information and project evaluation costs affect the firm's optimal behavior in different ways: a higher evaluation cost means that the firm evaluates the project later (that is sets a higher evaluation threshold) but invests sooner (that is sets a lower investment threshold); a bigger role for project-specific information also induces the firm to set a lower investment threshold but it actually encourages the firm to evaluate the project sooner. The value of waiting is lower when more information is project-specific and when project evaluations are more costly. Standard real option models may therefore overestimate the value of investment timing flexibility. This misvaluation is especially severe when the value of the completed project is strongly mean reverting because then precision in investment timing is particularly important.
机译:实物期权分析通常假设项目在确定为最佳的确切时间连续进行评估和启动。然而,由于正式评估投资机会的成本,无法以这种方式管理现实世界的项目。本文分析了在这样的世界中如何管理项目。有关项目的信息有两种形式:项目特定的信息,只有在产生固定的评估成本时才能观察到;以及可以免费观察的一般信息。如果在项目评估后的一段时间内观察到足够好的通用信息,则该公司将进行投资而无需任何进一步评估。在此期间之后,公司将始终在投资前重新评估项目。信息的可用性和项目评估成本以不同的方式影响公司的最佳行为:较高的评估成本意味着企业评估项目的时间较晚(设置较高的评估阈值),但投资较早(即设置较低的投资阈值) ;对于特定项目的信息,更大的作用还促使公司设定较低的投资门槛,但实际上鼓励公司更快地评估项目。当更多的信息是针对项目的,并且项目评估的成本更高时,等待的价值就会降低。因此,标准的实物期权模型可能会高估投资时机灵活性的价值。当已完成项目的价值强烈意味着恢复时,这种错误评估就尤其严重,因为这时投资时机的精确性尤为重要。

著录项

  • 作者

    Guthrie Graeme;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2005
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en_NZ
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