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Statistical Analysis of Wave Climate Data Using Mixed Distributions and Extreme Wave Prediction

机译:基于混合分布和极端波预报的海浪气候数据统计分析

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摘要

The investigation of various aspects of the wave climate at a wave energy test site is essential for the development of reliable and efficient wave energy conversion technology. This paper presents studies of the wave climate based on nine years of wave observations from the 2005-2013 period measured with a wave measurement buoy at the Lysekil wave energy test site located off the west coast of Sweden. A detailed analysis of the wave statistics is investigated to reveal the characteristics of the wave climate at this specific test site. The long-term extreme waves are estimated from applying the Peak over Threshold (POT) method on the measured wave data. The significant wave height and the maximum wave height at the test site for different return periods are also compared. In this study, a new approach using a mixed-distribution model is proposed to describe the long-term behavior of the significant wave height and it shows an impressive goodness of fit to wave data from the test site. The mixed-distribution model is also applied to measured wave data from four other sites and it provides an illustration of the general applicability of the proposed model. The methodologies used in this paper can be applied to general wave climate analysis of wave energy test sites to estimate extreme waves for the survivability assessment of wave energy converters and characterize the long wave climate to forecast the wave energy resource of the test sites and the energy production of the wave energy converters.
机译:在波浪能测试现场对波浪气候的各个方面进行调查对于开发可靠,高效的波浪能转换技术至关重要。本文基于在2005年至2013年期间的9年海浪观测结果,对海浪气候进行了研究,该观测结果是由位于瑞典西海岸的Lysekil海浪能量测试地点的海浪测量浮标测得的。对海浪统计数据进行了详细分析,以揭示该特定测试地点的海浪气候特征。长期极端波浪是通过对测量的波浪数据应用“阈值之上的峰值”(POT)方法估算的。还比较了不同返回周期在测试点处的有效波高和最大波高。在这项研究中,提出了一种使用混合分布模型的新方法来描述显着波高的长期行为,并且显示了与测试地点的波数据拟合的令人印象深刻的优势。混合分布模型还应用于来自其他四个站点的实测波数据,并提供了所提出模型的一般适用性的说明。本文所使用的方法可用于波浪能测试地点的一般波浪气候分析,以估算极端波浪,以评估波浪能转换器的生存能力,并表征长波气候,以预测测试地点的波浪能源和能量波浪能转换器的生产。

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