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A New Approach to Obtain Synthetic Wind Power Forecasts for Integration Studies

机译:集成研究中获取综合风电预测的新方法

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摘要

When performing wind integration studies, synthetic wind power forecasts are key elements. Historically, data from operational forecasting systems have been used sparsely, likely due to the high costs involved. Purely statistical methods for simulating wind power forecasts are more common,but have problems mimicking all relevant aspects of actual forecasts. Consequently, a new approach to obtain wind power forecasts for integration studies is proposed, relying on long time series of freely and globally available reforecasts. In order to produce synthetic forecasts with similar properties as operational ditto, some processing (noise addition and error reduction) is necessary. Validations with measurements from Belgium and Sweden show that the method is adequate; and distributions, correlations, autocorrelations and power spectral densities of forecast errors correspond well. Furthermore, abrupt changes when forecasts are updated and the existence of level and phase errors are reproduced. The influence from terrain complexity on error magnitude is promising, but more data is necessary for a proper validation.
机译:在进行风能集成研究时,合成风能预测是关键要素。从历史上看,由于成本高昂,很少使用来自运营预测系统的数据。纯统计方法用于模拟风能预报更为普遍,但存在模仿实际预报的所有相关方面的问题。因此,提出了一种新的方法来获取风电功率预测,以进行集成研究,这要依靠长期免费和全球可用的重新预测序列。为了生成具有与操作同上相似的属性的综合预测,需要进行一些处理(噪声添加和错误减少)。对比利时和瑞典的测量结果进行的验证表明,该方法是足够的。预测误差的分布,相关性,自相关和功率谱密度很好地对应。此外,当更新预测并再现电平和相位误差的存在时,突变会突然发生。地形复杂性对误差幅度的影响是有希望的,但要进行正确的验证,还需要更多数据。

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