Modelling of changes in electricity end-use and their impacts on electricity distribution

摘要

The electricity distribution sector will face significant changes in the future. Increasingreliability demands will call for major network investments. At the same time, electricityend-use is undergoing profound changes. The changes include future energy technologiesand other advances in the field. New technologies such as microgeneration and electricvehicles will have different kinds of impacts on electricity distribution network loads. Inaddition, smart metering provides more accurate electricity consumption data andopportunities to develop sophisticated load modelling and forecasting approaches. Thus,there are both demands and opportunities to develop a new type of long-term forecastingmethodology for electricity distribution.The work concentrates on the technical and economic perspectives of electricitydistribution. The doctoral dissertation proposes a methodology to forecast electricityconsumption in the distribution networks. The forecasting process consists of a spatialanalysis, clustering, end-use modelling, scenarios and simulation methods, and the loadforecasts are based on the application of automatic meter reading (AMR) data. Thedeveloped long-term forecasting process produces power-based load forecasts. Byapplying these results, it is possible to forecast the impacts of changes on electrical energyin the network, and further, on the distribution system operator’s revenue. These resultsare applicable to distribution network and business planning.This doctoral dissertation includes a case study, which tests the forecasting process inpractice. For the case study, the most prominent future energy technologies are chosen,and their impacts on the electrical energy and power on the network are analysed. Themost relevant topics related to changes in the operating environment, namely energyefficiency, microgeneration, electric vehicles, energy storages and demand response, arediscussed in more detail.The study shows that changes in electricity end-use may have radical impacts both onelectrical energy and power in the distribution networks and on the distribution revenue.These changes will probably pose challenges for distribution system operators. The studysuggests solutions for the distribution system operators on how they can prepare for thechanging conditions. It is concluded that a new type of load forecasting methodology isneeded, because the previous methods are no longer able to produce adequate forecasts.