Knowledge extraction and the development of a decision support system for the conceptual design of liquefied natural gas terminals under risk and uncertainty.

摘要

The concept design stage is widely regarded to be the most influential. Key decisions are made and significant project finance is acquired. Traditionally, designs are developed through engineering judgement, driven by experience. However, this approach can be time consuming as designs typically evolve through iteration and it does not guarantee that the most optimal option(s) will be developed.ududThis thesis discusses the development of a decision support system for the concept design of an LNG terminal - RaPoLa (Rapid Port Layout). It uses a range of computing and mathematical devices to enable options to be developed manually or automatically using both deterministic and probabilistic methodologies. This enables the exploration for optimal concept designs to be accomplished in a multitude of ways.ududA full description of the mathematical basis of RaPoLa is given and three chapters detailing practical applications introduce the reader to the core concepts of RaPoLa and demonstrate a clear progression from a simple deterministic, manual design to a fully automated, probabilistic design. The results of using RaPoLa on a case study indicate that it is capable of producing options that more optimal than the traditional approach.