Ballistic coefficient estimation for re-entryudprediction of rocket bodies in eccentric orbitsudbased on TLE data

摘要

Spent rocket bodies in geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) poseudimpact risks to the Earth's surface when they re-enter the Earth's at-udmosphere. To mitigate these risks, re-entry prediction of GTO rocketudbodies is required. In this paper, the re-entry prediction of rocket bod-udies in eccentric orbits based on only Two-Line Element (TLE) dataudand using only ballistic coefficient (BC) estimation is assessed. TheudTLEs are preprocessed to filter out outliers and the BC is estimatedudusing only semi-major axis data. The BC estimation and re-entry pre-uddiction accuracy are analyzed by performing predictions for 101 rocketudbodies initially in GTO and comparing with the actual re-entry epochudat different times before re-entry. Predictions using a single and mul-udtiple BC estimates and using state estimation by orbit determinationudare quantitatively compared with each other for the 101 upper stages.