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Construction Procurement: Modelling Bidders’ Learning in Recurrent Bidding

机译:施工采购:在重复招标中模拟投标人的学习

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摘要

Construction remains a significant area of public expenditure. An understanding of the process of changes in construction pricing, and how the process can be manipulated through the release of bidding feedback information is vital, in order to best design clients’ procurement policies. This paper aims to statistically model inexperienced individual bidders’ learning in recurrent bidding under partial and full information feedback conditions. Using an experimental dataset, the developed linear mixed model contains three predictor variables, namely: time factor, information feedback conditions, and bidding success rate in the preceding round. The results show nonlinearity and curvature in the bidders’ learning curves. They are generally less competitive in time periods after a winning bid with lower average bids submitted by those subjected to full information feedback condition. In addition, the model has captured the existence of heterogeneity across bidders with individual-specific parameter estimates that demonstrate the uniqueness of individual bidders’ learning curves in recurrent bidding. The findings advocate for adequate bidding feedback information in clients’ procurement design to facilitate learning among contractors, which may in turn lead to increased competitiveness in their bids.
机译:建设仍然是公共支出的重要领域。为了最好地设计客户的采购政策,了解建筑价格变化的过程以及如何通过发布投标反馈信息来操纵该过程至关重要。本文旨在对部分和全部信息反馈条件下的经验不足的个体投标者在循环投标中的学习进行统计建模。使用实验数据集,开发的线性混合模型包含三个预测变量,即:时间因子,信息反馈条件和前一轮的竞标成功率。结果显示出投标人的学习曲线中的非线性和曲率。在中标之后的时间段内,它们的竞争力通常较弱,而那些处于完全信息反馈条件下的人员所提交的平均出价较低。此外,该模型还通过特定于个体的参数估计值捕获了各个投标者之间异质性的存在,这些参数估计值证明了单个投标者的学习曲线在重复投标中的独特性。调查结果主张在客户的采购设计中提供充分的投标反馈信息,以促进承包商之间的学习,从而可能反过来提高其投标的竞争力。

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