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The employment dynamics of different population groups over the business cycle

机译:经济周期中不同人群的就业动态

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摘要

We use Bayesian VARs to analyze differences in employment dynamics across population groupsin the US. The employment of males, young people, non-whites, the less educated, and workersin blue-collar occupations fluctuates more heavily. We further document across-group differences in the timing of employment reactions to business-cycle shocks. Groups with strongerfluctuations are affected early in the transmission process. Furthermore, we disentangle betweenthe effects of different shocks. Supply shocks primarily drive differences between occupations,genders, age groups, and education groups. Demand shocks are important for the dynamics ofemployment ratios between races and ethnic origins.
机译:我们使用贝叶斯VAR来分析美国不同人群之间就业动态的差异。男性,年轻人,非白人,文化程度较低的工人以及蓝领职业的工人波动更大。我们进一步记录了企业对经济周期冲击的就业反应时间之间的跨群体差异。起伏较大的群体在传播过程的早期受到影响。此外,我们区分了不同冲击的影响。供应冲击主要驱动职业,性别,年龄组和教育组之间的差异。需求冲击对于种族和族裔之间的就业比率动态很重要。

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