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Essays in dynamic macroeconomics: public policy, household savings, and lack of commitment

机译:动态宏观经济学中的论文:公共政策,家庭储蓄和缺乏承诺

摘要

This dissertation consists of three chapters that study how public and private agents make decisions in the absence of commitment. Chapter 1 investigates how the option to default on debt payments affects the conduct of public policy when the government lacks commitment. It studies optimal monetary and fiscal policy without commitment for a cash-credit good economy that is extended by incorporating a discrete default choice. When the government can default on its debt, public policy is shown to change in the short and the long run relative to a scenario without default option. The risk of default increases the volatility of interest rates, impeding the government's ability to smooth tax distortions across states. It also limits public debt accumulation and reduces the government's incentive to implement high inflation in the long run. Chapter 2 is also dedicated to the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy in the absence of commitment but studies the consequences of delegating monetary policy to an inflation conservative central banker. In particular, it develops a model of a small open economy that faces incomplete financial markets, risk of default and political distortions. These frictions matter for many emerging economies and might adversely affect the effectivity and desirability of monetary policy delegation. In the model, monetary and fiscal policy is set by two different authorities. Fiscal policy is chosen by a fiscal authority that exhibits a deficit bias due to political economy frictions and cannot commit to future policies, including debt repayment. Monetary policy is set by a central bank which also lacks commitment and might place a higher value on price stability than society. Despite increasing the average debt burden, the frequency of default and the volatility of fiscal policy, inflation conservatism leads to net welfare gains by successfully implementing lower and more stable inflation. Chapter 3 develops a model of a two-person household whose individual members are altruistic towards each other and lack commitment to future actions, showing how household decision making depends on whether household members cooperate or not. Compared to a household that consists of members that cooperate and make decisions based on a joint objective, the non-cooperative interaction between household members is associated with a savings distortion. When household members are imperfectly altruistic, this distortion is shown to result in an undersaving bias. Using a model version with labor income risk and a precautionary savings motive, Chapter 3 shows that non-cooperative households might save substantially less than cooperative ones when the individual members exhibit imperfect spousal altruism, resulting in sizable welfare losses.
机译:本文由三章组成,主要研究公共和私人代理人在缺乏承诺的情况下如何做出决策。第1章研究了在政府缺乏承诺的情况下,拖欠债务的选择如何影响公共政策的执行。它研究最佳的货币和财政政策,而没有承诺通过合并离散的违约选择来扩展现金信用良好的经济。当政府可以拖欠债务时,相对于没有违约选择权的情况,公共政策在短期和长期都会发生变化。违约风险增加了利率的波动性,阻碍了政府缓解各州税收扭曲的能力。从长远来看,这也限制了公共债务的积累,并降低了政府实施高通胀的动力。第2章还专门讨论了在没有承诺的情况下货币政策与财政政策之间的相互作用,但是研究了将货币政策委托给通胀保守的中央银行家的后果。特别是,它建立了一个小型的开放经济模型,该模型面临着不完整的金融市场,违约风险和政治扭曲。这些摩擦对许多新兴经济体都很重要,并且可能对货币政策授权的有效性和可取性产生不利影响。在该模型中,货币和财政政策由两个不同的主管部门制定。财政政策是由财政当局选择的,由于政治经济摩擦,财政当局表现出赤字偏见,并且不能承诺未来的政策,包括偿还债务。货币政策由中央银行制定,中央银行也缺乏承诺,因此可能比社会更重视价格稳定。尽管平均债务负担,违约频率和财政政策波动加剧,但通货膨胀保守主义通过成功实施更低和更稳定的通货膨胀而带来了净福利收益。第三章建立了一个两人家庭的模型,该家庭的个人成员之间相互无私,对未来的行动缺乏承诺,说明了家庭决策如何取决于家庭成员是否合作。与由合作并根据共同目标进行决策的成员组成的家庭相比,家庭成员之间的非合作互动会导致储蓄失真。当家庭成员的利他主义不完美时,这种扭曲会导致储蓄不足的偏见。第三章使用具有劳动收入风险和预防性储蓄动机的模型版本,表明当个体成员表现出不完美的配偶利他行为时,非合作家庭的储蓄可能比合作家庭少得多,从而导致相当大的福利损失。

著录项

  • 作者

    Röttger Joost;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2015
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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