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INSYDE: a synthetic, probabilistic flood damage model based on explicit cost analysis

机译:INSYDE:基于显式成本分析的综合概率洪灾损失模型

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摘要

Methodologies to estimate economic flood damagesudare increasingly important for flood risk assessment andudmanagement. In this work, we present a new synthetic flooduddamage model based on a component-by-component analysisudof physical damage to buildings. The damage functionsudare designed using an expert-based approach with the supportudof existing scientific and technical literature, loss adjustmentudstudies, and damage surveys carried out for past flood eventsudin Italy. The model structure is designed to be transparentudand flexible, and therefore it can be applied in different geographicaludcontexts and adapted to the actual knowledge ofudhazard and vulnerability variables.udThe model has been tested in a recent flood event in northernudItaly. Validation results provided good estimates of posteventuddamages, with similar or superior performances whenudcompared with other damage models available in the literature.udIn addition, a local sensitivity analysis was performedudin order to identify the hazard variables that have more influenceudon damage assessment results.
机译:估计经济洪灾损失的方法对于洪灾风险评估和管理来说越来越重要。在这项工作中,我们提出了一个新的合成洪水破坏模型,该模型基于建筑物的逐项分析 udof物理损坏。使用专家的方法设计破坏函数,并在现有科学和技术文献的支持下,对损失进行调整,研究,并对过去的洪水事件进行破坏调查,在意大利。该模型结构设计为透明 ud和灵活的,因此可以应用于不同的地理 ud上下文中,并适应 udazar和易受害变量的实际知识。意大利。验证结果提供了很好的事后损失评估,与文献中提供的其他损害模型相比,具有类似或更高的性能。另外,还进行了局部敏感性分析,以识别具有更大影响力的危险变量。乌冬面损害评估结果。

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