Strom- und Gasmarktdesign zur Versorgung des deutschen Straßenverkehrs mit Wasserstoff

摘要

The German government has set targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2020, 55% by 2030, 70% by 2040 and 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990 as reference year. As well as meeting other requirements, these targets can be achieved by raising the contri-bution of renewably-generated power to Germany’s gross electricity consumption to 80% by 2050. Based on Germany’s potential, intermittent energy sources (IES) such as on- and off-shore wind, as well as photovoltaics, are necessary sources that must be utilized in order to achieve these ambitious targets. Because of the intermittency of these sources, there will be times in which surplus power generated could be used for example for the transport sector. During these periods of surplus power, the storage capacity of hydrogen allows for a so-called “power-to-gas” concept whereby the surplus power can be used to produce hydrogen and oxygen by means of electrolyzers. The aim of this thesis is to identify and develop a market design that is characterized by high penetration levels of IES, supplemented by the use of hydrogen in the transport sector. Fur-thermore, the aim was to develop a model in which the electricity and gas sector, including a hydrogen pipeline grid, is represented so as to analyze and validate selected market designs. Therefore, potential electricity and gas markets, as well as the most important potential share and stakeholders of a hydrogen infrastructure, are analyzed. With the model developed in this thesis, an existing energy concept has been developed, analyzed and evaluated. In addition, the distribution of the hydrogen production costs was calculated by employing a Monte Carlo Simulation analysis. The developed energy concept relies on 170 GW onshore and 60 GW offshore wind capacity and these dominate the model. This leads to surplus power, especially in the federal states of Lower Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein and Mecklenburg-Hither Pomerania. To supply the estimated peak hydrogen demand in 2052 with 2.93 Million tons, a total capacity of 20 GW of electrolyzes in 15 counties must be installed. The necessary hydrogen pipelines from IES sources to 9,968 hydrogen fuel stations will require a 12,104 km transmission pipeline which will cost an estimated €6.68 billion and for distribution, a total length of 29,671 km will be required, with an estimated cost of €12 billion. Furthermore, for three separate cases that can be distinguished by their respective input parameters, the profitability of an electricity and gas market design to supply the German transport sector with hydrogen is demonstrated. This analysis was also performed by means of a Monte Carlo Simulation. It shows that, with a target cost of 22.9 ct/kWh, the probability of pretax hydrogen production cost, including the infrastructure, laying under the target costs, are 81%.