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Two decades of CGE modelling lessons from models for Egypt

机译:来自埃及模型的20年CGE建模课程

摘要

Egypt's exceptional experience of two decades of CGE modelling is used to derive lessons for comparable analysis for other countries, give important issues for CGE modelling in general and give future modellers a guide to build on the older modelling experience. It can be derived from the CGE studies of the Egyptian economy that the model closure and the parameters to a large extent determine the results. However, there is no agreement on the closure rule one should use to describe the Egyptian economy while the parameters are generally not very reliable if compared to parameters used in econometric models. the small contribution of these models to actual policy making in Egypt may be explained by the unreliability of the parameters, the absence of financial markets and the short-term focus of most models. It is therefore concluded that improvement of the reliability of the parameters, the adaptation of the model to changes in the economic structure and the introduction of financial markets are important issues for future research.
机译:埃及在二十多年CGE建模方面的卓越经验被用来汲取教训,供其他国家进行可比分析,为CGE建模提供了重要的问题,并为未来的建模者提供了基于较旧建模经验的指南。从埃及经济的CGE研究可以得出,模型的封闭和参数在很大程度上决定了结果。但是,对于描述埃及经济的封闭规则并没有达成共识,而与计量经济模型中使用的参数相比,这些参数通常不是很可靠。这些模型对埃及实际决策的微小贡献可能是由于参数的不可靠性,缺乏金融市场以及大多数模型的短期关注。因此得出的结论是,参数可靠性的提高,模型对经济结构变化的适应性以及金融市场的引入是未来研究的重要问题。

著录项

  • 作者

    Thissen Mark;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 1998
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 入库时间 2022-08-20 20:28:55

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