There are various factors affecting one’s conjecture about the future of the world economy. One is the “objective” content of current evolution as it is reflected by economic indicators (the second pillar, to speak in the language of the ECB); another is the increased degree of uncertainty which has followed September 11. Unfortunately the macroeconomics of political uncertainty is not a well developed field in economics. On the first factor evidence is mixed. All over the world, economists are currently revising downward their growth forecast for the global economy and especially for the US, Japan and Europe. The most shared view is that the “recovery” is and will continue to be softer than expected.
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