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Capital Cities, Conflict, and Misgovernance: Theory and Evidence

机译:首都城市,冲突与治理失范:理论与证据

摘要

Motivated by a novel stylized fact - countries with isolated capital cities display worse quality of governance - we provide a framework of endogenous institutional choice based on the idea that elites are constrained by the threat of rebellion, and that this threat is rendered less effective by distance from the seat of political power. In established democracies, the threat of insurgencies is not a binding constraint, and the model predicts no correlation between isolated capitals and misgovernance. In contrast, a correlation emerges in equilibrium in the case of autocracies. Causality runs both ways: broader power sharing (associated with better governance) means that any rents have to be shared more broadly, hence the elite has less of an incentive to protect its position by isolating the capital city; conversely, a more isolated capital city allows the elite to appropriate a larger share of output, so the costs of better governance for the elite, in terms of rents that would have to be shared, are larger. We show evidence that this pattern holds true robustly in the data. We also show that isolated capitals are associated with less power sharing, a larger income premium enjoyed by capital city inhabitants, and lower levels of military spending by ruling elites, as predicted by the theory.
机译:受新的程式化事实的激励-首都城市偏僻的国家显示出较差的治理质量-我们基于精英受叛乱威胁束缚,远距离使这种威胁的有效性降低这一思想提供了内生的制度选择框架在政治权力所在地。在已建立的民主国家中,叛乱的威胁不是有约束力的约束,并且该模型预测,孤立的首都与管理不善之间没有关联。相反,在独裁统治的情况下,均衡出现了相关性。因果关系有两种方式:更广泛的权力共享(与更好的治理相关)意味着必须更广泛地共享任何租金,因此,精英人士没有动力通过孤立首都来保护自己的位置。相反,更偏僻的首都城市允许精英分配更大份额的产出,因此就必须分担的租金而言,改善精英治理的成本更大。我们显示出这种模式在数据中稳健地存在的证据。我们还表明,如理论所预言的那样,孤立的首都与更少的权力共享,首都城市居民享有的更高的收入溢价以及统治精英的较低的军事支出相关。

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