The Unresolved Mystery of the Great Divergence is Solved

摘要

Abstract. The so-called great divergence in the income per capita is described in the Unified Growth Theory as the mind-boggling and unresolved mystery about the growth process. This mystery has now been solved: the great divergence never happened. It was created by the manipulation of data. Economic growth in various regions is at different levels of development but it follows similar, non-divergent trajectories. Unified Growth Theory is shown yet again to be incorrect and scientifically unacceptable. It promotes incorrect and even potentially dangerous concepts. The distorted presentation of data supporting the concept of the great divergence shows that economic growth is now developing along moderately-increasing trajectories but mathematical analysis of the same data and even their undistorted presentation shows that these trajectories are now increasing approximately vertically with time. So, while the distorted presentation of data used in the Unified Growth Theory and the spuriously-created great divergence suggest the generally sustainable and secure economic growth, the undistorted presentation of data demonstrates that the growth is unsustainable and insecure. Similar dangerously incorrect concept promoted by the Unified Growth Theory is the repeated doctrine of takeoffs from the hypothetical but non-existent stagnation to growth. They also suggest prosperous and secure future. Such takeoffs never happened but even without them the current economic growth is insecure.Keywords. Economic growth, Unified Growth Theory, Regional economic growth, Great Divergence, Income per capita, Hyperbolic growthJEL. A10, A12, C12, C20, C50, F00, N00, Y80.