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Quantifying uncertainty in radar rainfall estimates using an X-band dual polarisation weather radar

机译:使用X波段双极化天气雷达量化雷达降雨估计中的不确定性

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摘要

Weather radars have been used to quantitatively estimate precipitation since their development in the 1940s, yet these estimates are still prone to large uncertainties which dissuade the hydrological community in the UK from adopting these estimates as their primary rainfall data source. Recently dual polarisation radars have become more common, with the national networks in the USA, UK and across Europe being upgraded, and the benefits of dual polarisation radars are beginning to be realised for improving quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE).ududThe National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) mobile Doppler X-band dual polarisation weather radar is the first radar of its kind in the UK, and since its acquisition in 2012 has been deployed on several field campaigns in both the UK and abroad. The first of these campaigns was the Convective Precipitation Experiment (COPE) where the radar was deployed in Cornwall (UK) through the summer of 2013. This thesis has used the data acquired during the COPE field campaign to develop a processing chain for the X-band radar which leverages its dual polarisation capabilities.ududThe processing chain developed includes the removal of spurious echoes including second trip, ground clutter and insects through the use of dual polarisation texture fields, logical decision thresholds and fuzzy logic classification. The radar data is then corrected for theudeffects of attenuation and partial beam blockage (PBB) by using the differential phase shift to constrain the total path integrated attenuation and calibrate the radarudazimuthally. A new smoothing technique has been developed to account for backscatter differential phase in the smoothing of differential phase shift which incorporates a long and a short averaging window in conjunction with weighting smoothing using the copolar correlationudcoefficient. During the correction process it is shown that the calculation of PBB is insensitive to the variation in the ratio between specific attenuation and specific differential phase shift provided a consistent value is used. It is also shown that the uncertainty in attenuation correction is lower when using a constrained correction suchudas the ZPHI approach rather than a direct linear correction using differential phase shift and is the preferred method of correction where possible.ududFinally the quality controlled, corrected radar moments are used to develop a rainfall estimation for the COPE field campaign. Results show that the quality control and correction process increases the agreement between radar rainfall estimates and rain gauges when using horizontal reflectivity from a regression correlation of -0.01 to 0.34, with a reduction in the mean absolute percentage difference (MAPD) from 86% to 31%. Using dual polarisationudmoments to directly estimate rainfall shows that rainfall estimates based on the theoretical conversion of specific attenuation to reflectivity produce the closest agreement toudrain gauges for the field campaign with a MAPD of 24%. Finally it is demonstrated that merging multiple dual polarisation rainfall estimates together improves the performance of the rainfall estimates in high intensity rainfall events while maintaining the overall accuracy of the rainfall estimates when compared to rain gauges.
机译:自1940年代发展以来,天气雷达就一直用于定量估计降水量,但是这些估计值仍然容易产生很大的不确定性,这使英国水文界无法将这些估计值用作其主要降雨数据来源。最近,随着美国,英国和整个欧洲的国家/地区网络的升级,双极化雷达也变得越来越普遍,双极化雷达的好处也开始为改善定量降水估计(QPE)而实现。大气科学中心(NCAS)移动多普勒X波段双极化天气雷达是英国首款此类雷达,自2012年被收购以来,已在英国和国外的多个野战活动中部署。这些活动中的第一个是对流降水实验(COPE),该雷达在2013年夏季之前一直在英国康沃尔部署了雷达。本论文利用了COPE野外活动期间获得的数据来开发X-利用其双极化功能的带状雷达。开发的处理链包括通过使用双极化纹理场,逻辑决策阈值和模糊逻辑分类来消除伪造回波,包括第二次跳闸,地物杂波和昆虫。然后,通过使用差分相移来约束总路径积分衰减并以雷达方式校准雷达数据,以针对衰减和部分波束阻塞(PBB)的影响校正雷达数据。已经开发出一种新的平滑技术来解决差分相移的平滑中的反向散射差分相位,该技术结合了长和短的平均窗口以及使用同极性相关系数/ udcoefficient的加权平滑。在校正过程中显示,如果使用一致的值,则PBB的计算对特定衰减和特定差分相移之比的变化不敏感。还显示出,当使用诸如ZPHI方法的约束校正而不是使用差分相移的直接线性校正时,衰减校正的不确定性较低,并且是在可能的情况下首选的校正方法。 ,校正后的雷达矩用于为COPE野战开展降雨估算。结果表明,当使用水平反射率时,从-0.01到0.34的回归相关性,质量控制和校正过程增加了雷达降雨量估计值与雨量计之间的一致性,并且平均绝对百分比差(MAPD)从86%降低到31 %。使用双极化降水量直接估算降雨表明,基于特定衰减到反射率理论转换的降雨估算,对于MAPD为24%的野战活动产生了与雨量计最接近的一致性。最后,证明了将多个双极化降雨估计值合并在一起可以提高高强度降雨事件中降雨估计值的性能,同时与雨量计相比,可以保持降雨估计值的整体准确性。

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