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Prospect Theory – an Alternative to the Expected Utility Theory

机译:前景理论–期望效用理论的替代方法

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摘要

Purpose of the article: Economic theory has long relied on a descriptively sparse model of individuals behavior based on the premise that people are rational and held in accordance with the expected utility theory, but in the reality there are many situations when people behave irrationally (e.g. buying stocks when the prices are too hight and selling stocks when prices sharply drop, underwrite the event with an extremely low probability, playing a lottery). We present a number of empirical demonstrations that are inconsistent with the classical theory, expected utility. Scientific aim of this article: The aim of the article is a critically describe the problems related with anomalies of expected utility theory and introduce descriptive theory, a prospect theory, of how individuals choose among risky alternatives. Methodology/methods: The primary and secondary research was applied. Selected scientific articles and other literature published with the theme of expected utility theory and prospect theory are mainly used to support a critical analyse of how individuals choose among risky alternatives. Regarding the primary research the questionaires method was used. Findings: Based on our research, we discovered several situations in the process of individuals decision making among risky alternatives, which are not consistent with some axioms of the theory of expected utility. Therefore, we propose to build on the prospect theory for individuals decision making among risky alternatives. Conclusions: The prospect theory is a descriptive model of decision making under uncertainty. According to this theory, individuals can assess risk through asymmetric valuation function that is defined on gains and losses, is concave to convex on the gains and losses. Prospect theory uses a transformed probability rather than an objective function using weighting. The prospect theory is more representative of human behavior than the expected utility theory.
机译:本文的目的:长期以来,经济学理论一直基于描述性的稀疏个人行为模型,前提是人们是理性的,并符合预期效用理论,但实际上,在许多情况下,人们的行为不合理(例如,当价格过高时购买股票,而当价格急剧下降时出售股票,则以极低的概率承销该事件,玩彩票)。我们提出了许多与经典理论,预期效用不一致的经验论证。本文的科学目的:本文的目的是批判性地描述与预期效用理论异常有关的问题,并介绍个人如何在风险替代方案中进行选择的描述性理论,一种前景理论。方法论/方法:应用了主要和次要研究。精选的以预期效用理论和预期理论为主题的科学文章和其他文献主要用于支持对个人如何在风险替代品中进行选择的批判性分析。对于主要研究,使用问卷调查法。发现:基于我们的研究,我们发现了在风险替代方案中个人决策过程中的几种情况,这与预期效用理论的某些公理不一致。因此,我们建议建立基于前景理论的风险替代方案中的个人决策。结论:前景理论是不确定性下决策的描述性模型。根据该理论,个人可以通过对收益和损失定义的不对称估值函数评估风险,对收益和损失进行凹入或凸出评估。前景理论使用变换后的概率,而不是使用加权的目标函数。预期理论比预期效用理论更能代表人类行为。

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