A Multiregional Population Projection Framework that Incorporates both Migration and Residential Mobility Streams: Application to Metropolitan City-Suburb Redistribution

摘要

This paper introduces a population projection framework that incorporates both interregional migration and intraregional residential mobility streams to project future population sizes both across and within regions in a manner that is consistent with existing migration theory. The paper presents a general matrix model of the framework, shows how its parameters can be estimated from fixed interval census migration data, and discusses how the framework can be employed to "update" population projections when recent, more limited data sets become available. These features of the framework are demonstrated with intrametropolitan central city-suburb projections for selected US SMSAs over the period, 1970-2020.