Starters, stoppers en herstarters. Veranderingen vanrook-status in de algemene bevolking

摘要

A state-transition model has been developed that describes the change inthe numbers of never, current and former smokers over time and age. Thechanges are governed by transition rates: the rate for a never-smoker tostart smoking, for a current smoker to stop, and for a former smoker tostart again. In the past we only had data available from repeatedcross-sectional studies to estimate these transition rates. Recentlydata became available from studies with prospectively or retrospectivelyrepeated measurements that are better suited to estimate transitionrates. These data sets are StiVoRo surveys, the MORGEN Study, and theDoetinchem Cohort Study. The data analysis methods were based on themathematical equations that underlie the smoking model. In this way thesmoking transition rates have been estimated. The differences betweenthe results from the studies were small. The starters are concentratedat the younger ages, the stop smoking rate levels show a U-shaped curveover age, and the restart smoking rate levels decrease almost linearlyover age. State-transition models can be very helpful in analysingchanges of risk factor levels over time and age. When these changes arelarge, repeated measurement data are necessary to estimate the transitionrates.