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A Simple Method to Estimate the Time-dependent ROC Curve Under Right Censoring

机译:右删失下估计与时间有关的ROC曲线的简单方法

摘要

The time-dependent Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is often used to study the diagnostic accuracy of a single continuous biomarker, measured at baseline, on the onset of a disease condition when the disease onset may occur at different times during the follow-up and hence may be right censored. Due to censoring, the true disease onset status prior to the pre-specified time horizon may be unknown on some patients, which causes difficulty in calculating the time-dependent sensitivity and specificity. We study a simple method that adjusts for censoring by weighting the censored data by the conditional probability of disease onset prior to the time horizon given the biomarker and the observed censoring time. Our numerical study shows that the proposed method produces unbiased and efficient estimators of time-dependent sensitivity and specificity as well as area under the ROC curve, and outperforms several other published methods currently implemented in R packages.
机译:随时间变化的接收器操作特征(ROC)曲线通常用于研究单个连续生物标志物在疾病状况发作时在基线时测量的诊断准确性,而该疾病发作可能在随访期间的不同时间发生因此可能会被正确审查。由于检查的原因,在某些患者中,在预定时间范围之前的真实疾病发作状态可能是未知的,这导致了计算时间依赖性敏感性和特异性的困难。我们研究了一种简单的方法,该方法通过在给定生物标记和观察到的审查时间的时间范围之前,根据疾病发作的条件概率对审查数据进行加权来调整审查数据。我们的数值研究表明,所提出的方法可以得出随时间变化的灵敏度和特异性以及ROC曲线下面积的无偏差且有效的估计量,并且优于目前在R包中实施的其他几种已发表方法。

著录项

  • 作者

    Li Liang; Hu Bo; Greene Tom;

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  • 年度 2015
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