Response of the middle atmosphere to anthropogenic and natural forcings in the CMIP5 simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth system model

摘要

The ECHAM6 atmospheric general circulation model is the atmosphere component of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) that is used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. As ECHAM6 has its uppermost layer centered at 0.01 hPa in the upper mesosphere, these simulations offer the opportunity to study the middle atmosphere climate change and its relation to the troposphere on the basis of a very comprehensive set of state-of-the-art model simulations. The goals of this paper are (a) to introduce those new features of ECHAM6 particularly relevant for the middle atmosphere, including external forcing data, and (b) to evaluate the simulated middle atmosphere and describe the simulated response to natural and anthropogenic forcings. New features in ECHAM6 with respect to ECHAM5 include a new short-wave radiation scheme, the option to vary spectral irradiance independent of total solar irradiance, and a latitude-dependent gravity-wave source strength. The description of external forcing data focuses on solar irradiance and ozone. Stratospheric temperature trends simulated with the MPI-ESM for the last decades of the 20th century agree well with observations. The future projections depend strongly on the scenario. Under the high emission scenario RCP8.5, simulated temperatures are locally lower by more than 20 K than preindustrial values. Many of the simulated patterns of the responses to natural forcings as provided by solar variability, volcanic aerosols, and El Nino-Southern Oscillation, largely agree with the observations. 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.