Analyse des dynamiques spatio-temporelles des systèmes de peuplement dans un contexte d'incertitude. Application à l'archéologie spatiale.

摘要

The uncertainty inherent to our comprehension of past settlement systems, generated by our ways of collecting or recording data but also by our spatio-temporal categorisation and reflexion on this information, greatly condition hypotheses and results. This thesis was carried out in the framework of PaleoSyr/PaleoLib project, and develops a methodological and exploratory reasoning chain whose aim is to reveal and formalise with spatial analysis several levels of knowledge and uncertainty which are inherent to archaeological databases. It proposes alternatives to try and avoid the conditioning imposed by rigid spatio-temporal categories such as periods or survey zones. It is organised in two major axes : the first one intends to clarify and synthetize several levels of information which are inherent to a big database covering Occidental Syria and Lebanon from -9600 B.C to the present, by adapting decision making and spatio-morphological methods, and through geovisualisation processes in an exploratory dimension. The second axis explores and evaluates locally the impacts of the various spatio-temporal and uncertainty levels revealed by data with geostatistics and spatial statistics on our perception of spatio-temporal change, on a test zone situated at the North-West of Syria. Several models of the “possible pasts” of settlement with the help of fuzzy logic are then proposed, depending on the various spatio-temporal and uncertainty levels taken into account.