Evolution du trait de côte, bilans sédimentaires et évaluation des zones à risques sur le littoral du Nord-Pas-de-Calais : analyse multi-échelles par LiDAR aéroporté

摘要

Sandy beaches and coastal dunes still represent a significant portion of the coast of Nord-Pas-de-Calais, northern France. These sandy accumulation landforms, which sometimes constitute the only defense protecting low-lying coastal areas from coastal flooding, are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise associated with climate change. The main objectives of the thesis were to analyze shoreline change and coastal sediment budget at the regional scale, to assess the role of changes in sediment volume on shoreline stability, and to evaluate areas at risk from coastal hazards in the near future, using airborne topographic LiDAR data collected between 2008 and 2014 and aerial photographs from 1963 to 2009. Analyses of shoreline change revealed spatially as well as temporally variable evolutions. Seaward shoreline progradation occurred along several stretches of coastline at multi-decadal and short time-scales, while significant coastal retreat took place at other sites during the same time periods. The comparison between coastline evolution and the initial volume of the upper beach in 2008 showed that the higher retreat rates were mainly observed in areas where the upper beach was lacking at high tide. Our results also suggest that there is a sediment volume threshold on the upper beach at each site above which the coastline is stable or progrades seaward. Mapping of areas at risk of marine flooding in 2050, taking into account a projection of sea level rise due to climate change, clearly shows that the submersion of coastal dunes would take place at several sites during storm-induced high water level events. The mapping of these areas at risk being based on topographic data collected in December 2013 and January 2014, coastal flooding is very likely to occur much earlier than 2050 at several sites, however, where very high rates of coastal retreat result in severe erosion of the coastal dunes. The calculation of sediment budget based on the repetitive LiDAR surveys shows that, overall, sediment accretion predominates over the entire regional coastal zone. This accretion is particularly significant for the upper beach and coastal dunes, except for a few sites that are characterized by a strong sediment deficit (particularly Wissant bay and the northern shore of the Authie estuary). These results suggest that the coastal zone of northern France does not experience sediment shortage, but is rather dominated by sediment storage in the backshore of the sand beaches.