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The combination of monetary and fiscal policy shocks : a TVP-FAVAR approach

机译:货币政策和财政政策冲击的结合:TVP-FAVAR方法

摘要

This paper analyzes jointly the effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks in the US economy using a factor augmented vector autoregressive model with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatility. The time varying structure of the model allows to assess the impact of monetary policy shocks in the same periods when fiscal policy shocks identified via the narrative approach are also at play. In this way we study how the monetary policy transmission changes conditional on expansionary or contractionary exogenous fiscal policies, which are determined by the discretionary intervention of the fiscal authority and are not the response of business cycle fluctuations or the reaction to monetary policy. We find that fiscal policy strongly affects the impulse responses to monetary policy shocks through the aggregate demand channel. These results are relevant to understand the implications of different policy mixes.
机译:本文使用具有漂移系数和随机波动性的因子增强向量自回归模型,共同分析了货币和财政政策冲击对美国经济的影响。该模型的时变结构允许在通过叙述方法确定的财政政策冲击也在起作用的同一时期,评估货币政策冲击的影响。通过这种方式,我们研究了货币政策的传导方式如何以扩张性或收缩性外生财政政策为条件而变化,这是由财政当局的自由干预决定的,而不是商业周期波动的反应或对货币政策的反应。我们发现,财政政策会通过总需求渠道极大地影响对货币政策冲击的冲动反应。这些结果与了解不同政策组合的含义有关。

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