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MIDAS vs. Mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area

机译:MIDAS与混频VAR:欧元区的GDP预测

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摘要

This paper compares the mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and mixed-frequency VAR (MF-VAR) approaches to model speci cation in the presence of mixed-frequency data, e.g.,monthly and quarterly series. MIDAS leads to parsimonious models based on exponentiallag polynomials for the coe¢ cients, whereas MF-VAR does not restrict the dynamics andtherefore can su¤er from the curse of dimensionality. But if the restrictions imposed byMIDAS are too stringent, the MF-VAR can perform better. Hence, it is di¢ cult to rankMIDAS and MF-VAR a priori, and their relative ranking is better evaluated empirically.In this paper, we compare their performance in a relevant case for policy making, i.e.,nowcasting and forecasting quarterly GDP growth in the euro area, on a monthly basisand using a set of 20 monthly indicators. It turns out that the two approaches aremore complementary than substitutes, since MF-VAR tends to perform better for longerhorizons, whereas MIDAS for shorter horizons.
机译:本文比较了混合数据采样(MIDAS)和混合频率VAR(MF-VAR)方法在存在每月和每个季度的混合频率数据的情况下对规格进行建模的方法。 MIDAS导致基于系数的指数多项式的简约模型,而MF-VAR不限制动力学,因此可以从维数的诅咒中获得帮助。但是,如果MIDAS施加的限制过于严格,则MF-VAR的性能会更好。因此,很难对MIDAS和MF-VAR进行先验排序,并通过经验更好地评估它们的相对排名。欧元区,每月一次,使用一组20个每月指标。事实证明,这两种方法比替代方法更具互补性,因为MF-VAR在较长的地平线上表现更好,而MIDAS在较短的地平线上表现更好。

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