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Predictability and chaotic nature of daily streamflow

机译:每日流量的可预测性和混乱性质

摘要

The predictability of a chaotic series is limited to a few future time steps due to its sensitivity to initial conditions and the exponential divergence of the trajectories. Over the years, streamflow has been considered as a stochastic system in many approaches. In this study, the chaotic nature of daily streamflow is investigated using autocorrelation function, Fourier spectrum, correlation dimension method (Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm) and false nearest neighbor method. Embedding dimensions of 6-7 obtained indicates the possible presence of low-dimensional chaotic behavior. The predictability of the system is estimated by calculating the system’s Lyapunov exponent. A positive maximum Lyapunov exponent of 0.167 indicates that the system is chaotic and unstable with a maximum predictability of only 6 days. These results give a positive indication towards considering streamflow as a low dimensional chaotic system than as a stochastic system.
机译:由于混沌序列对初始条件的敏感性和轨迹的指数散度,其可预测性仅限于未来的几个时间步长。多年来,在许多方法中,流量一直被认为是随机系统。在这项研究中,使用自相关函数,傅立叶频谱,相关维数方法(Grassberger-Procaccia算法)和伪最近邻方法研究了每日流量的混沌性质。获得的嵌入尺寸为6-7表示可能存在低维混沌行为。系统的可预测性通过计算系统的Lyapunov指数进行估算。最大的Lyapunov指数为正值0.167表示系统混乱且不稳定,最大可预测性仅为6天。这些结果为将流看作是低维混沌系统而不是随机系统提供了积极的指示。

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    Kumar Nagesh D; Dhanya CT;

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  • 年度 2011
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