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Impact of Daily Arctic Sea Ice Variability in CAM3.0 during Fall and Winter

机译:秋冬季冬季CAM3.0中北极海冰每日日变化的影响

摘要

Climate projections suggest that an ice-free summer Arctic Ocean is possible within several decades and with this comes the prospect of increased ship traffic and safety concerns. The daily sea ice concentration tendency in five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations is compared with observations to reveal that many models underestimate this quantity that describes high-frequency ice movements, particularly in the marginal ice zone. To investigate whether high-frequency ice variability impacts the atmosphere, the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.0 (CAM3.0), is forced by sea ice with and without daily fluctuations. Two 100-member ensemble experiments with daily varying (DAILY) and smoothly varying (SMTH) sea ice are conducted, along with a climatological control, for an anoma- lously low ice period (August 2006–November 2007). Results are presented for three periods: September 2006, October 2006, and December–February (DJF) 2006/07. The atmospheric response differs between DAILY and SMTH. In September, sea ice differences lead to an anomalous high and weaker storm activity over northern Europe. During October, the ice expands equatorward faster in DAILY than SMTH in the Siberian seas and leads to a local response of near-surface cooling. In DJF, there is a 1.5-hPa positive sea level pressure anomaly over North America, leading to anomalous northerly flow and anomalously cool continental U.S. temperatures. While the atmospheric responses are modest, the differences arising from high temporal frequency ice variability cannot be ignored. Increasing the accuracy of coupled model sea ice variations on short time scales is needed to improve short-term coupled model forecasts.
机译:气候预测表明,几十年之内,北冰洋夏季将是无冰的,随之而来的是船舶运输和安全问题的增加。将五个耦合模型比较项目第5阶段(CMIP5)模拟中的每日海冰浓度趋势与观测值进行比较,发现许多模型低估了描述高频冰运动(特别是在边缘冰带)的数量。为了调查高频冰的可变性是否会影响大气,海冰在每天有无波动的情况下强制采用了社区大气模型3.0版(CAM3.0)。针对异常低冰期(2006年8月至2007年11月),进行了两个100个成员的集合实验,分别进行每日变化(DAILY)和平稳变化(SMTH)的海冰以及气候控制。结果分为三个阶段:2006年9月,2006年10月和2006/07年12月至2月(DJF)。大气响应在每日和SMTH之间有所不同。 9月,海冰差异导致北欧上空的风暴活动异常高低。在十月期间,西伯利亚海中的冰每天在赤道处的扩张要比SMTH快,并且导致近地表降温的局部响应。在DJF中,北美地区存在1.5hPa的正海平面压力异常,导致异常的北风和异常凉爽的美国大陆温度。尽管大气响应是适度的,但是由高时频冰变化引起的差异不容忽视。需要提高短时间尺度上耦合模型海冰变化的准确性,以改善短期耦合模型预报。

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