Micro-hardiness Agriculture Zones in the North Star Borough, Alaska: Past and Future Scenarios

摘要

Agriculture in the Arctic is often limited by the low receiptud-- of heat energy, which is often measured in growing degreeud-- days (GDD). With the advent of increasingly powerful climateud-- modeling, projection and downscaling techniques, it is becoming possible to examine future climates in high resolution.ud-- Recent availability in Alaska has prompted interest in examining the distribution of current and the potential future ofud-- local agriculture. The goal of this study was to utilize Scenariosud-- Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP) downscaled, ensembleud-- projections to examine this in terms of GDDs in the Fairbanksud-- North Star Borough of Alaska. Historic and projected monthlyud-- mean temperatures were utilized to calculate GDDs and thenud-- map the borough at a 4 km2 scale. Additionally, local agriculturalists were interviewed in order to put these theoretical calculations into context. Ultimately, projections of the examined agricultural locations showed an average of a 2% increaseud-- in GDD per decade and a 26% increase in GDDs from 1949ud-- to 2099. This project indicated that the North Star Boroughud-- will receive increased heat energy due to climate change overud-- the next century that may further enable increased yields andud-- varieties of crops.