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Estimating preconstruction services costs for highway projects

机译:估算公路项目的施工前服务成本

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摘要

Preconstruction Services (PCS) is defined as all work completed on a project once it has been authorized for funding and cost related to the project can be charged accordingly, up until construction contract is awarded. Due to the changing nature of State DOT work with increased funding uncertainties and shrinking budgets it is more important than ever to ensure proper allocation of funds for highway projects. Uneducated estimates for preconstruction services or using a fixed percentage across multiple projects can lead to a misallocation of available capital funding in the PCS phase, which may force the need to redistribute funding late in an agency\u27s fiscal year to cover overages and to expend underruns before the authorization expires. Underestimation can lead to inadequate PCS budgets and poor construction documents. In short an educated thought out PCS cost estimate can lead to cost certainty within all aspects of a project.Firstly the research focuses on developing a framework for a PCS cost estimate focusing on the type of estimate and the factors that affect it. Second, an artificial neural network model is proposed to estimate PCS costs, the research also investigates a method for defining projects to further refine the historic data that is used in the NN model. Finally the research focuses on a method to estimate a design cost contingency.Two types of estimates were found top-down and bottom-up estimates the difference in the estimate was dependent on the end user and the amount of data available. Three factors complexity, project type and construction cost were found to be the three factors that had a major influence on PCS cost estimate. The NN model produce provided a top-down PCS estimate, the final model provided estimates with a weighted error of 1.4% over 13 projects. Iowa DOT\u27s method of classifying projects based on project complexity was investigated and determined to be an appropriate method for project classification considering project complexity was considered a major influence factor. Finally a method was determined to estimate an appropriate design contingency using design cost estimate accuracy index. All methods and models developed in this thesis are expected to be applied to individual agency\u27s historic data and estimating systems. It is also stressed that models have limitations and should not be used outside the range which it was developed.
机译:预先施工服务(PCS)的定义是,一旦项目获得授权就可以完成项目中的所有工作,并且可以相应地收取与项目相关的费用,直到获得施工合同为止。由于州交通部工作性质的不断变化,资金不确定性增加,预算不断减少,因此,确保为公路项目分配适当的资金比以往任何时候都更为重要。对施工前服务的估算没有根据,或者在多个项目中使用固定的百分比,可能会导致PCS阶段中可用资金的分配不当,这可能会迫使需要在一个机构的会计年度后期重新分配资金,以弥补超支和支出不足的情况授权到期之前。低估可能导致PCS预算不足和施工文件不正确。简而言之,经过深思熟虑的PCS成本估算可以在项目的各个方面带来成本确定性。首先,本研究着重于开发PCS成本估算的框架,重点是估算的类型和影响其的因素。其次,提出了一个人工神经网络模型来估计PCS成本,该研究还研究了一种用于定义项目以进一步优化NN模型中使用的历史数据的方法。最后,研究集中在一种估算设计成本偶然性的方法上。自上而下和自下而上的两种估算被发现,估算的差异取决于最终用户和可用数据量。发现复杂度,项目类型和建设成本这三个因素是对PCS成本估算产生重大影响的三个因素。 NN模型产生的数据提供了自上而下的PCS估计,最终模型提供的估计在13个项目中的加权误差为1.4%。研究了爱荷华州DOT的基于项目复杂度的项目分类方法,并确定该方法是将项目复杂度视为主要影响因素的合适项目分类方法。最后,确定了一种使用设计成本估算准确性指标来估算适当的设计意外事件的方法。本文开发的所有方法和模型都有望应用于各个机构的历史数据和估算系统。还应强调的是,模型具有局限性,不应在模型开发范围之外使用。

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    Hunter, Kate;

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  • 年度 2014
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en
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