SIMULATIONS NUMERIQUES D'EPISODES DE PRECIPITATIONS INTENSES DOCUMENTES LORS DE LA CAMPAGNE DE MESURES MAP (MESOSCALE ALPINE PROGRAMME)

摘要

Heavy rainfalls frequently occur on the southern side of the Alps,resulting in casualties and millions of US dollars worth of damage.Improving the understanding and forecasting of these events is one ofthe central objectives of current operational meteorology.In 1999, the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) provided detaileddocumentation on several major rain events.In this study, some of these events are simulated using the Frenchnon-hydrostatic model, Meso-NH.We first focus on the sensitivity of the forecasting of a strongconvective event to the microphysical scheme used in the model, and tothe initial conditions.The study is then broadened to two other MAP events.It appears clearly that different flow regimes generatedifferent microphysical behaviour of the clouds.