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Modelling Urban Growth: Towards an Agent Based Microeconomic Approach to Urban Dynamics and Spatial Policy Simulation

机译:建模城市增长:迈向基于Agent的微观经济学方法进行城市动力学和空间政策模拟

摘要

Urban growth, urban sprawl if uncoordinated and dispersed, can be considered one of the most important policy agendas in modern urban regions. While no single policy option or remedy exists, understanding the urban growth system is the first step towards sustainable urban growth futures. Spatially explicit and dynamic urban growth models provide valuable simulations that encapsulate essential knowledge in planning and policy making such as how and where urban growth can occur and what the driving forces of such changes are. Over the past two decades, cellular automata (CA) models have proven to be an effective modelling approach to the study of complex urban growth systems. More recently Agent Based Modelling (ABM) has developed to yield a useful framework for understanding complex urban systems and this provides an arena for exploring the possible outcome states of various policy actions. Yet most research efforts of this sort adopt physical and heuristic approaches which tend to neglect socio-economic dynamics which is critical in shaping urban form and its transformation. This thesis aims to develop an agent based urban simulation model which has a more rigid theoretical explanation of agent behaviour than most such models hitherto. However, before developing such an agent based model, this study first conducted a series of experimental simulations with two well-known generic CA based urban models, SLEUTH and Metronamica, in order to better understand the complexity of designing and applying this class of urban models. Although CA and ABM are two distinctive modelling approaches, they share certain fundamentals concerning the complexity of systems and thus the empirical simulations with widely used CA models provide useful insights for the development of a new dedicated agent based urban growth model. For this purpose, each CA model is calibrated to the study area of the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea. The research then moves towards developing an agent based model based on microeconomic foundations. Utility maximising residential location choices made by households are modelled as the main impetus for urban growth through agglomeration and sprawl. Furthermore, based on such urban dynamics, alternative planning policy options such as greenbelts and public transportation are simulated so that their impacts can be clarified and assessed. In this way, the model is also able to examine how planning policies alter the economic utility of households and redirect market-led urban development. These results confirm the unique value of such modelling approaches. Yet, new research challenges such as the estimation of model parameters and the use of such models in planning support continue to dominate this field and in conclusion, we identify future research directions which build on these challenges
机译:如果没有协调和分散的城市扩张,城市增长可以被认为是现代城市地区最重要的政策议程之一。尽管没有单一的政策选择或补救措施,但了解城市增长系统是迈向可持续城市增长未来的第一步。空间明确且动态的城市增长模型提供了有价值的模拟,这些模拟封装了规划和政策制定中的基本知识,例如如何以及在何处发生城市增长以及这种变化的驱动力是什么。在过去的二十年中,细胞自动机(CA)模型已被证明是研究复杂的城市增长系统的有效建模方法。最近,基于代理的建模(ABM)已开发出来,可以为理解复杂的城市系统提供有用的框架,这为探索各种政策行动的可能结果状态提供了一个舞台。但是,大多数此类研究工作都采用物理和启发式方法,这些方法往往忽略了社会经济动态,这对于塑造城市形态及其转型至关重要。本文旨在开发一种基于智能体的城市模拟模型,该模型比迄今为止的大多数此类模型对智能体行为的理论解释更为严格。但是,在开发这种基于主体的模型之前,本研究首先使用两个著名的基于通用CA的城市模型SLEUTH和Metronamica进行了一系列实验模拟,以更好地理解设计和应用此类城市模型的复杂性。尽管CA和ABM是两种独特的建模方法,但是它们在系统复杂性方面具有某些共同点,因此使用广泛使用的CA模型进行的经验模拟为开发基于新型专用代理的城市增长模型提供了有用的见识。为此,每种CA模型均已校准至韩国首尔都会区的研究区域。然后,研究转向基于微观经济基础开发基于代理的模型。效用最大化使住户选择的住所模型化成为通过集聚和蔓延实现城市增长的主要动力。此外,根据这种城市动态,模拟了绿带和公共交通等替代性的规划政策方案,以便可以明确和评估其影响。这样,该模型还能够检验规划政策如何改变家庭的经济效用,以及如何改变以市场为导向的城市发展。这些结果证实了这种建模方法的独特价值。然而,新的研究挑战,例如模型参数的估计以及在规划支持中使用这些模型,继续主导着这一领域,总而言之,我们确定了基于这些挑战的未来研究方向

著录项

  • 作者

    Kim DH;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2012
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类

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