Decision-support methodology to assess risk in end-of-life management of complex systems

摘要

End-of-life management of complex systems is increasingly important for industry because of growing environmental concerns and associated regulations. In many areas, lack of hindsight and significant statistical information restricts the efficiency of end-of-life management processes and additional expert knowledge is required. In this context and to promote the reuse of secondhand components, a methodology supported by risk assessment tools is proposed. The proposal consists of an approach to combine expert and statistical knowledge to improve risk assessment. The theory of belief functions provides a common framework to facilitate fusion of multisource knowledge, and a directed evidential network is used to compute a measure of the risk level. An additional indicator is proposed to determine the result quality. Finally, the approach is applied to a scenario in aircraft deconstruction. In order to support the scientific contribution, a software prototype has been developed and used to illustrate the processing of directed evidential networks.