Vers une démarche de garantie des consommations énergétiques dans les bâtiments neufs : Méthodes d'évaluation des incertitudes associées à la simulation thermique dynamique dans le processus de conception et de réalisation.

摘要

Before the construction of a building, an energy performance guarantee consists in predicting the energy required for user comfort. To do that, it is necessary to state a contractual consumption and identify the key parameters to pay special attention to. Thus, for new buildings, consumption is calculated under design phase, when several data are uncertain. Thus, the dynamic thermal simulation is carried out with hypothetical data, without having the possibility to calibrate with measures.This PhD thesis aims to develop a method of uncertainty quantification during the design step and construction process of a new building. These uncertainties are classified into three categories: those associated with the calculation methods used for building and system modeling, those related to the lack of knowledge of model parameters and those due to the real use conditions of the building (occupancy and weather).To achieve this goal, uncertainties associated with the calculation methods are addressed, to identify some practices limiting the number of errors and the associated uncertainties. Then, a methodology is defined to choose the critical parameters used for the probabilistic study and to associate them with a distribution according to the available knowledge. The central part of this PhD thesis is dedicated to an exhaustive comparison of methods to select a fast uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis method. Finally, after illustrating the overall contracting approach and discussing the inclusion of financial risks, the method is applied on a real case, on which an adjustment formula is added to take into account actual weather and usage.