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Nuclear reactors' construction costs: The role of lead-time, standardization and technological progress

机译:核反应堆的建设成本:交货时间,标准化和技术进步的作用

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摘要

This paper provides the first comparative analysis of nuclear reactor construction costs in France and the United States. Studying the cost of nuclear power has often been a challenge, owing to the lack of reliable data sources and heterogeneity between countries, as well as the long time horizon which requires controlling for input prices and structural changes. We build a simultaneous system of equations for overnight costs and construction time (lead-time) to control for endogeneity, using expected demand variation as an instrument. We argue that benefits from nuclear reactor program standardization can arise through short term coordination gains, when the diversity of nuclear reactors' technologies under construction is low, or through long term benefits from learning spillovers from past reactor construction experience, if those spillovers are limited to similar reactors. We find that overnight construction costs benefit directly from learning spillovers but that these spillovers are only significant for nuclear models built by the same Architect Engineer (A-E). In addition, we show that the standardization of nuclear reactors under construction has an indirect and positive effect on construction costs through a reduction in lead-time, the latter being one of the main drivers of construction costs. Conversely, we also explore the possibility of learning by searching and find that, contrary to other energy technologies, innovation leads to construction costs increases.
机译:本文首次对法国和美国的核反应堆建造成本进行了比较分析。由于缺乏可靠的数据来源和国家之间的异质性,以及需要控制投入价格和结构变化的长期目标,研究核电成本通常是一个挑战。我们使用预期需求变化作为一种​​工具,建立了一个通宵方程式和构建时间(交货时间)的联立方程组,以控制内生性。我们认为,当正在建设的核反应堆技术的多样性较低时,可以通过短期的协调收益来获得核反应堆计划标准化带来的好处;如果将这些影响限于以下方面,则可以从过去的反应堆建设经验中学习溢出来获得长期利益:类似的反应堆。我们发现,隔夜的建造成本直接受益于学习溢出效应,但是这些溢出效应仅对由同一位建筑师(A-E)建造的核模型非常重要。此外,我们表明,在建核反应堆的标准化通过缩短交付周期对建设成本产生了间接的积极影响,交付周期的缩短是建设成本的主要驱动力之一。相反,我们也通过搜索来探索学习的可能性,发现与其他能源技术相反,创新导致建筑成本增加。

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