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Estimating projects duration in uncertain environments: Monte Carlo simulations strike back

机译:估计不确定环境中的项目工期:蒙特卡洛模拟反击

摘要

PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique), developed in the 1950’s, represented the first attempt to udincorporate uncertainty in project scheduling. Despite some weaknesses, it is still widely used in project udmanagement mostly thanks to the simplicity of its algorithm in operating on activity network diagrams. Today the udincreasing complexity of projects requires new techniques and the increasing availability of computer power have udnot brought project simulation into common usage as expected. Although several reviews assert that simulative udapproach has already superseded PERT when coping with uncertain environment; the reason why it is not diffused udis that simulations require a too long computing time. In this paper we show through an algorithm and experimental udresults that the computational time, historically the major drawback of Monte Carlo simulations, is definitely udminimum thanks also to the computational power available nowadays. We present results of an efficient program udmade of few lines of code and able to compute the completion time of a network activity diagram with 100.000 udactivities and about 50.000.000 precedence constraints between them.
机译:1950年代开发的PERT(程序评估和审查技术)代表了 udincorporate项目进度中的不确定性的首次尝试。尽管存在一些弱点,但由于其在活动网络图上运行算法的简单性,它仍然广泛用于项目 udmanagement。如今,项目的日益复杂要求新技术,并且计算机功能的日益普及也没有像预期的那样使项目模拟成为常见用法。尽管有几条评论断言,模拟 udapproach在应对不确定的环境时已经取代了PERT;不扩散的原因 udis模拟需要太长的计算时间。在本文中,我们通过算法和实验结果证明,历史上蒙特卡洛模拟的主要缺点是计算时间绝对是 udminimum,这要归功于当今可用的计算能力。我们介绍了由几行代码制成的高效程序的结果,该程序能够计算具有100.000个 udactivities和它们之间大约50.000.000个优先约束的网络活动图的完成时间。

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