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The Future Geopolitical Patterns and the Balkan States: Prediction from the Perspective of Geopolitical Theory

机译:未来的地缘政治格局与巴尔干国家:地缘政治理论的预测

摘要

This paper provides a prediction of future geopolitical patterns related to the Balkan states, on the basis of assumptions offered by the Geopolitical Theory. In general, on the long-term, it is shown that the Balkan states are excluded from the possibility of acquiring cumulative advantages as preconditions for further expansion. As a result, their position in the structure of geopolitical relations gives them the character of internal states, which, if not subordinated to the expansive power, are driven by empirically confirmed patterns of confrontation and fragmentation into smaller units. However, the analysis showed that the EU can be provisionally defined as the expansive force in a given geopolitical context. Therefore, the ratio of the Balkans and the European Union demonstrates the ongoing process of expansion, so in the medium term the decrease or freeze of antagonisms, and fragmentation into smaller units that are characterized by internal states can be expected. Certainly, this trend is conditioned by the assumption that the EU has a relatively coherent geopolitical interests.
机译:本文根据地缘政治理论提供的假设,对与巴尔干国家有关的未来地缘政治格局进行了预测。总的来说,从长远来看,表明巴尔干国家被排除在获得累积优势的可能性之外,这是进一步扩张的前提。结果,它们在地缘政治关系结构中的地位赋予它们内部状态的特征,如果不服从于扩张势力,内部状态将由经验证实的对抗和分裂为较小单位的模式所驱动。但是,分析表明,在给定的地缘政治背景下,可以将欧盟临时定义为扩张力量。因此,巴尔干与欧洲联盟的比例表明了正在进行的扩张过程,因此从中期来看,拮抗作用的减少或冻结,可以预见的是分裂为以内部状态为特征的较小单位。当然,这种趋势是以欧盟具有相对一致的地缘政治利益为前提的。

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    Janković Stefan;

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  • 年度 2013
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