U.S. Beef Demand Drivers and Enhancement Opportunities

摘要

This publication uses national, quarterly data to examine U.S. meatdemand using the Rotterdam model. The analysis provides insights intobeef demand and previously unexamined topics including the effect ofmultiple information indices linking different health concerns with diet,changes in household dynamics, and meat recall information.Estimation results confirmed that consumer expenditures are a veryimportant beef demand determinant, which means that beef demandis sensitive to the strength of the U.S. economy. Results also indicateconsumers respond to the receipt of information about beef and nutrition.For example, publication of medical journal articles linking iron,zinc, and protein with health and diet increase beef demand whereaspublication of articles dealing with fat, cholesterol, and diet concernsreduce beef demand.Overall, model results also suggest that beef demand suffered,and poultry demand benefitted, as U.S. consumers’ demand for moreconvenient meat products increased. In particular, as U.S. consumersconsumption of food away from home increased, beef demand declined.Consumers are also sensitive to food safety. When USDA Food SafetyInspection Service beef product recalls increase, beef demand declines.Moreover, beef product recalls have a significant positive spillover effecton poultry demand, suggesting that consumers shift away from beef andtoward poultry products in response to beef food safety recalls.In summary, this research provides a more complete understandingof the influence multiple information factors have on consumerdemand for beef. Future research could explore the use of additionalmedia indices focusing on animal welfare, environmental concerns, andother aspects of human health to estimate their impact on beef demand.Additionally, future research should also consider the use of scanner datato obtain better measures of prices paid by consumers for meat productsand to more narrowly identify some of the specific determinants of thefindings from this study.