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Using fuzzy PROMETHEE to select countries for developmental Aid

机译:用模糊的PROMETHEE选择国家作为发展援助

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摘要

Wealthy nations continue to demonstrate their unwavering support to improving conditions and the general well-being of poor countries in spite of the recent economic crises. However, as developmental aid relatively shrinks, both Aid donors and recipient countries have shown keen interest in methodologies used in evaluating developmental assistance programs. Evaluation of aid programs is seen as a complex task mainly because of the several non-aid factors that tend to affect overall outcomes. Adding to the complexity are the subjective sets of criteria used in Aid evaluations programs. This paper proposes a two stage framework of fuzzy TOPSIS and sensitivity analysis to demonstrate how aid-recipient countries can be evaluated to deepen transparency, fairness, value for money and sustainability of such aid programs. Using the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) set of subjective criteria for evaluating aid programs; a numerical examplepre-defined by linguistic terms parameterized by triangular fuzzy numbers is provided to evaluate aid programs. Fuzzy PROMETHEE is used in the first stage to evaluate and rank aid-recipients followed by a comparative analysis with Fuzzy VIKOR and Fuzzy TOPSIS to ascertain an accurateness of the method used. A sensitivity analysis is further added that anticipates possible influences from lobbyists and examines the effect of that bias in expert ratings on the evaluation process. The result shows a framework that can be employed in evaluating aid effectiveness of recipient-countries.
机译:尽管最近发生了经济危机,但富裕国家继续显示出坚定不移的支持,以改善贫困国家的状况和总体福祉。但是,随着发展援助的相对减少,援助捐助国和受援国都对评估发展援助计划所使用的方法表现出了浓厚的兴趣。评估援助计划被认为是一项复杂的任务,主要是因为有几种非援助因素倾向于影响总体结果。增加了复杂性的是援助评估计划中使用的主观标准集。本文提出了一个模糊的TOPSIS和敏感性分析的两阶段框架,以展示如何评估受援国以加深此类援助计划的透明度,公平性,物有所值和可持续性。使用经济合作与发展组织(OECD)的一套主观标准来评估援助计划;提供了由三角模糊数参数化的语言术语预定义的数值示例,用于评估辅助程序。在第一阶段使用Fuzzy PROMETHEE评估援助受援国并对其进行排名,然后使用Fuzzy VIKOR和Fuzzy TOPSIS进行比较分析,以确定所使用方法的准确性。进一步添加了敏感性分析,可以预测说客的可能影响,并检查专家评级中的偏见对评估过程的影响。结果显示了可用于评估受援国援助有效性的框架。

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