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Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam.

机译:影响人畜共患疾病动态的经济因素:越南对禽肉的需求和禽流感的季节性传播。

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摘要

While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods - wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling - we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens.
机译:尽管气候通常被认为是影响疾病季节性的关键因素,但人为因素的重要性却鲜为人知。我们结合小波分析,经济分析,统计和疾病传播建模等方法,探讨了气候和经济因素对越南家禽中H5N1高致病性禽流感季节性的影响。我们发现,尽管气候变量与该国北部禽流感暴发的季节性变化相关,但在中部和南部并非如此。相反,在这3个区域中,H5N1发生率的时间模式相似:H5N1发生率高的时期与1月至2月的8个研究年份中的3个气候区域的农历新年相吻合。然而,在全国农历新年期间,家禽肉的日常消费量急剧增加。为了满足这种需求的增长,预计禽肉的生产和贸易将在节日期间达到顶峰,从而促进病毒传播,我们使用随机疾病传播模型证明了这一点。这项研究说明了经济因素可能影响牲畜病原体动态的方式。

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