Une politique budgétaire keynésienne neutralisant les stabilisateurs automatiques en haut de cycle : le cas de la France en 2000-2001

摘要

A pro-cyclical keynesian fiscal policy neutralizing the impact of automatic stabilizers: the case of France in 2000-2001. This paper suggests a simple empirical method assessing the impact on growth of public finances in the short-run, namely a) the ex-ante fiscal impulse, b) its ex-post impact on growth and c) the ex-post overall impact on growth of public finances. Applying this method to the expansionary episode of the French fiscal policy in 2000-2001 yields two main results. The aggregate Keynesian multiplier for French public finances is most probably below 1 – which is in line with one of the implications of the neo-ricardian model. The effect on growth of the French pro-cyclical fiscal policy completely offset the impact of the automatic stabilizers during the latest cyclical peak. As a consequence, stimulating the economy during the following cyclical downswing became impossible because no margin of maneuver remained.