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On the Role of Demand and Strategic Uncertainty in Capacity Investment and Disinvestment Dynamics

机译:需求和战略不确定性在产能投资和投资动态中的作用

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摘要

Even mature industries seldom settle down into a long-run steady state. Fluctuations in demand disrupt the status quo and call for firms to adjust their capacities on an ongoing basis. We construct a fully dynamic model of an oligopolistic industry with lumpy capacity and lumpy investment/disinvestment decisions. In addition to uncertainty about the evolution of demand, a firm faces strategic uncertainty concerning the decisions of its rivals. We numerically solve the model for its Markov-perfect equilibria. For one set of parameter values, three equilibria exist, and while all of them have simple, intuitive structures, they exhibit widely varying patterns of response to demand shocks. At one extreme, one firm dominates the industry almost as a monopolist and changes its capacity to accommodate demand. At the other extreme, the larger firm keeps its capacity nearly constant while the smaller firm acts as the swing producer.
机译:甚至成熟的行业也很少能进入长期稳定的状态。需求的波动破坏了现状,并呼吁企业不断调整其能力。我们构建了具有块状产能和块状投资/撤资决策的寡头垄断行业的完全动态模型。除了需求演变的不确定性外,企业还面临着竞争对手决策的战略不确定性。我们用数值方法求解该模型的马尔可夫完美均衡。对于一组参数值,存在三个平衡点,尽管它们全部具有简单直观的结构,但它们表现出对需求冲击的响应模式差异很大。在一个极端情况下,一家公司几乎垄断了整个行业,并改变了其满足需求的能力。在另一个极端,较大的公司保持其能力几乎恒定,而较小的公司充当摇摆生产商。

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