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A retrospect and prospect on the development of China's stock market

机译:中国股票市场发展回顾与展望

摘要

The purpose of this research is to investigate the development and performances of the Chinese stock markets and the relationship between China's stock market development and economic growth. In theoretical discussions, we review some previous studies about the relationship between financial development and economic growth, then highlight the role of stock markets in economic activity, illustrate channels that have been identified by the theoretical research through which stock markets can influence economic growth, and finally summarize the previous empirical evidence. Following this, we focus on the development course of China's stock market, analyze its characteristics, and discuss the problems caused by the market's system flaws. In empirical analysis, we investigate actual performance of the Chinese stock markets, using the time series analysis techniques, and discuss particularly the relationship between stock market development and economic growth. The empirical results are consistent with our theoretical discussions that a policy-oriented stock market is less efficient and is, to a certain extent, unlikely to produce a significant and positive effect on economic growth. Given that one of the most important barriers to the development of China's stock market might be administrative interference of the government, this study finally addresses some corrective policy changes which may exert positive influence on the future development of China's stock market. --P. ii.
机译:本研究的目的是研究中国股票市场的发展和表现以及中国股票市场发展与经济增长之间的关系。在理论讨论中,我们回顾一些有关金融发展与经济增长之间关系的先前研究,然后强调股票市场在经济活动中的作用,阐明理论研究确定的渠道,股票市场可以通过这些渠道影响经济增长,以及最后总结以前的经验证据。在此之后,我们着眼于中国股票市场的发展历程,分析其特征,并讨论由市场系统缺陷引起的问题。在实证分析中,我们使用时间序列分析技术调查了中国股票市场的实际表现,并特别讨论了股票市场发展与经济增长之间的关系。实证结果与我们的理论讨论一致,即以政策为导向的股票市场效率较低,并且在一定程度上不太可能对经济增长产生重大积极影响。鉴于中国股票市场发展的最重要障碍之一可能是政府的行政干预,因此本研究最后探讨了一些纠正性政策变化,这些变化可能会对中国股票市场的未来发展产生积极影响。 --P。 ii。

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