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Objective determination of the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere

机译:客观确定北半球热带气旋的温带过渡

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摘要

Extratropical transition (ET) has eluded objective identification since the realisation of its existence in the 1970s. Recent advances in numerical, computational models have provided data of higher resolution than previously available. In conjunction with this, an objective characterisation of the structure of a storm has now become widely accepted in the literature. Here we present a method of combining these two advances to provide an objective method for defining ET. The approach involves applying K-means clustering to isolate different life-cycle stages of cyclones and then analysing the progression through these stages. This methodology is then tested by applying it to five recent years from the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasting operational analyses. It is found that this method is able to determine the general characteristics for ET in the Northern Hemisphere. Between 2008 and 2012, 54% (±7, 32 of 59) of Northern Hemisphere tropical storms are estimated to undergo ET. There is great variability across basins and time of year. To fully capture all the instances of ET is necessary to introduce and characterise multiple pathways through transition. Only one of the three transition types needed has been previously well-studied. A brief description of the alternate types of transitions is given, along with illustrative storms, to assist with further study
机译:自1970年代实现以来,温带过渡(ET)一直没有客观鉴定。数值计算模型的最新进展提供了比以前更高分辨率的数据。与此相关,风暴结构的客观表征现在已被文献广泛接受。在这里,我们提出一种结合这两种进步的方法,以提供一种定义ET的客观方法。该方法涉及应用K-均值聚类以分离旋风的不同生命周期阶段,然后分析这些阶段的进程。然后,将该方法应用于欧洲中距离天气预报中心的运营分析,并将其应用于最近五年。发现该方法能够确定北半球ET的一般特征。在2008年至2012年之间,估计北半球的热带风暴中有54%(59的±7,中的32)经历了ET。整个盆地和一年中的不同时间存在很大的差异。要完全捕获ET的所有实例,有必要通过过渡引入和表征多种途径。先前已经对三种所需的过渡类型中的只有一种进行了深入研究。简要介绍了替代的过渡类型以及说明性的风暴,以帮助进一步研究

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