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A complex system perspective on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases: integrating economic and ecological aspects

机译:从复杂的系统角度看传染病的发生和传播:整合经济和生态方面

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摘要

The emergence and spread of infectious diseases reflects the interaction of ecological and economic factors within an adaptive complex system. We review studies that address the role of economic factors in the emergence and spread of infectious diseases and identify three broad themes. First, the process of macro-economic growth leads to environmental encroaching, which is related to the emergence of infectious diseases. Second, there are a number of mutually reinforcing processes associated with the emergence/spread of infectious diseases. For example, the emergence and spread of infectious diseases can cause significant economic damages, which in turn may create the conditions for further disease spread. Also, the existence of a mutually reinforcing relationship between global trade and macroeconomic growth amplifies the emergence/spread of infectious diseases. Third, microeconomic approaches to infectious disease point to the adaptivity of human behavior, which simultaneously shapes the course of epidemics and responds to it. Most of the applied research has been focused on the first two aspects, and to a lesser extent on the third aspect. With respect to the latter, there is a lack of empirical research aimed at characterizing the behavioral component following a disease outbreak. Future research should seek to fill this gap and develop hierarchical econometric models capable of integrating both macro and micro-economic processes into disease ecology.
机译:传染病的出现和传播反映了适应性复杂系统内生态和经济因素的相互作用。我们回顾了解决经济因素在传染病的发生和传播中的作用的研究,并确定了三个广泛的主题。首先,宏观经济增长过程导致环境侵害,这与传染病的发生有关。第二,与传染病的发生/传播有许多相互促进的过程。例如,传染病的出现和传播会造成重大的经济损失,从而可能为进一步传播疾病创造条件。此外,全球贸易与宏观经济增长之间存在相互促进的关系,这加剧了传染病的出现/蔓延。第三,对传染病的微观经济学方法指出了人类行为的适应性,它同时塑造了流行病的过程并对之做出反应。大多数应用研究都集中在前两个方面,而在较小程度上集中在第三个方面。关于后者,缺乏旨在表征疾病暴发后行为成分特征的实证研究。未来的研究应设法填补这一空白,并开发能够将宏观和微观经济过程整合到疾病生态学中的分层计量经济学模型。

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