Decomposing the Growth of US Wine Exports to China into Scale, Competitive, and Second-order Effects

摘要

The study aims at investigating the reason for the growth of US wine exports to China through utilizing CMS (Constant Market Share Analysis) model decomposed into three effects: scale, competitive and second-order effect. The result shows that the increasing demand of Chinese market is the key factor for the growth of US wine exports to China; at the same time, it also indicates that the product competitiveness of US wine is declining, while market distribution channels are lacking. The phenomenon of the increase of Chinese market for importing American wine can be attributed to the growing Chinese wine market, the growth of economy in China and the increasing income of Chinese people, as well as the trade policy after China joining in WTO.